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onsdag 04. mai 2011 05:22

 

Store investeringer, kjøp og salg, gjøres i gull og sølv av tunge hedgefond aktører

 

Silver prices plunged, suffering their worst one-day drop in dollar terms in three decades, as investors fretted that rising trading costs could cripple a market exhibiting signs of froth. Silver's fall of $3.50, or 7.6%, and a 1% drop in gold prices Tuesday came as some major investors have been selling. George Soros's big hedge fund, a firm operated by high-profile investor John Burbank and some other leading firms have been selling gold and silver, according to people close to the matter, after furiously accumulating precious metals for much of the past two years.

And some prominent investment pros continue to favor precious metals, among them hedge-fund manager John Paulson. Last week an exchange-traded fund, or ETF, that owns silver bullion—the iShares Silver Trust—was the most active ETF on the U.S. market on some days, a sign of the rabid recent interest in silver. "We haven't seen this much volatility in decades," said Robin Rodriguez, a metals trader in Charlottesville, Va. "We have such large profits built in," so some investors are taking their winnings, said Mr. Rodriguez, who remains bullish on the metal. Interest in holding the silver ETF grew so intense it became hard to borrow shares to sell, as bearish traders need to do if they want to sell the metal short and bet on a decline. All this helped set up the tumble, which started late Sunday, catching many by surprise. As sell orders flooded the market in Asia, brokers sought more collateral from investors who had bought on margin, even as they fielded calls from anxious investors who wanted to sell.

While many who buy gold do so to protect against future inflation, Soros Fund Management bought gold to protect against the possibility of the opposite—debilitating deflation, or a sustained drop in consumer prices. But now the $28 billion Soros firm, which is run by Keith Anderson, believes chances of deflation are reduced, eliminating the need to hold as much gold, according to people close to the matter. People familiar with Mr. Anderson's thinking said he believes the Federal Reserve's continuing to pump money into the system has reduced the likelihood of deflation. The Soros team, meanwhile, isn't especially worried about a surge in inflation. Mr. Anderson has argued that by the end of this year the Fed will signal that interest-rate increases are in the offing, possibly early in 2012, according to someone close to the firm. Higher interest rates would tend to suppress inflation.

A number of high-profile investors remain huge holders of gold and silver, amid continuing concern about inflation and the dollar. Mr. Paulson, known for his lucrative bet against mortgages a few years ago, told investors he still has most of his personal money in gold-denominated funds operated by Paulson & Co. Mr. Paulson told investors Tuesday morning that gold prices could go as high as $4,000 an ounce over the next three to five years, as the U.S. and U.K. flood the money supply. Gold settled in New York at $1,540.10 a troy ounce Tuesday. Wexford Capital, a $6.5 billion fund that has been a large buyer of silver over the past year, retains much of its metal positions, according to someone close to the matter. Andrew Hall, a former star trader at Citigroup who runs hedge fund Astenbeck Capital Management LLC and trades for Phibro, a unit of Occidental Petroleum Corp., told his clients last month that gold and silver will continue to "march higher" unless evidence emerges of "an imminent rise" in interest rates. Higher interest rates could help the dollar and make other investments more competitive vis-a-vis precious metals, which pay no interest.

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